So I just tried to donate some money to a charity, for the China earthquake victims, via its Web site and was presented with a Web server error. Ostensibly, the charity runs off Microsoft IIS. I can only imagine how much potential charity money has been lost due to this technical glitch.
Another example why we should discount the opinions of some so-called analysts (who, presumably, help manage money, if you can believe that!). The wisdom of the crowd is that there are smarter people in the crowd. See here for excellent international iPhone demand analysis that is not myopically US-centric.
(The catch? Read the comments by “Tantrum” rather than the blogger!)
Some folks are trying to pick a winner between Android and iPhone, but it’s pretty myopic to think the world market isn’t big enough for both. Different segments anyway. Tinkering geeks on the one hand and mainstream hipsters on the other. Maybe a third category for folks-who-don’t-care-either-way. Besides, isn’t it blindingly obvious that GOOG and AAPL are probably even more buddy-buddy than MSFT and INTC ever were, and that they both have the same entity in their crosshairs? While this entertaining bit of indirection is going on, I think the folks who really should be worried are the cell phone manufacturers. It’s funny to see them race each other getting Android kit to market. Not sure they are going to like the post-race party. It’s going to resemble the history of the computer sector, with a two- or three-horse race between OEMs selling basically the same boring hardware and trying to one-up each other with different shades of lipstick and blush. Instead of “value add,” think “slim margins.” You can also throw the word “attrition” into the mix.
I ordered my MacBook Air almost immediately after watching the Macworld Expo keynote in January. I’d been waiting ages for a lightweight computer that would lighten my backpack. I wasn’t happy with any of the super-portable alternatives I’d toyed with before - including trying to work on business documents using only a Treo and a full-sized Bluetooth keyboard.
The iPhone landgrab should be happening RFN. Any serious mobile platform developer had better grab the SDK (good luck though; the URL Apple sent me doesn’t work. I suspect servers are overloaded) and start tinkering away so product is ready by June. In particular, all the PalmOS-based folks with great Palm apps had better take time off from the day job to code, if they want to be front of the line so they can make a “first mover” impression on the target market before the signal-to-noise ratio gets out of control (probably already there).
[Update: Looks like Apple’s keeping the developer party tight. Well, if every line of source code needs to be vetted, then of course resources are going to be very constrained leading up to June’s “iPhone app parade.”]
Microsoft made a “bombshell” announcement:
To enhance connections with third-party products, Microsoft will publish on its Web site documentation for all application programming interfaces (APIs) and communications protocols in its high-volume products that are used by other Microsoft products. Developers do not need to take a license or pay a royalty or other fee to access this information.
Yet here’s the take from the European Commission:
Nonetheless, the Commission notes that today’s announcement follows at least four similar statements by Microsoft in the past on the importance of interoperability.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7257411.stm
Acid tests: Standards-based Web browsers rendering any Web page that Internet Explorer can, ActiveX included; and patents - not just API descriptors - being released into public domain.
Nearly half of the 800,000 to 1 million iPhones that are believed to have been unlocked for distribution and use outside Apple’s sanctioned networks may be in China, according to a new report.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. At Macworld Expo, the event that the rest of the world calls the annual gathering for the Cult of the Mac, Steve Jobs unveils what Apple has been hiding, and the world celebrates by drawing lines in the sand.
We’ve come a long way since January 7th, 1997, when Steve Jobs returned to Apple. Wall Street commemorated the momentous occasion by closing AAPL at $4.375, down from $4.4675 the day before. Obviously, the financial analysts weren’t impressed by this move. Not very many of them were raising price targets like they have been doing in recent years.
Warp to January 15th, 2008. Steve Jobs announces, among other things, the MacBook Air, Time Capsule, iTunes movie rentals, and added iPhone and iPod touch functionality. AAPL closes at $169.04, down from $177.72 at the open. Certain media “pundits” complain about “lackluster” announcements and the absence of iPod growth numbers. PC users slam the MacBook Air, pointing to underpowered specifications.
So what else is new?
OK, so the current price of AAPL probably has more to do with the overall market malaise concerning subprime mortgage issues and recession probabilities than any specific news item from Steve Jobs’s keynote. But increasingly, a new digital divide is becoming apparent: those who have a clue about Apple, and those who wannahave. Long-time Apple watchers will understand when I say that Apple is not conducive to superficial analysis. It’s true that you have to be somewhat of an “Apple follower” to keep track of the company, not so much in the sense of blind-faith that the clueless keep accusing us of, but in the manner of buying and using Apple products over the years, and observing how various personalities and policies influence Apple’s direction at key turning points.
Because Apple is such a hot news item these days, lots of people are writing about the company. It almost seems not to matter that the analysis is wrong, only that hot Apple-related keywords are included so that the publications get reader traffic, and financial analysts get paid for “saying stuff.” To be fair, there are also many good writers and analysts out there, but for this month’s article I wanted to do a little exercise and see if we can’t get away with being a clueless analyst. You can also try this at home with family and friends. Let’s begin:
To start, I’m thinking we should completely dispense with what we honestly think. Since the objective is just to spew out controversy and get read, it’s better to be all negative. It’s easy to be negative. Like Sam Rayburn said, “Any jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build it.”
So, here’s how I really feel:
And since we’re going negative, we need to take these four points and turn them around, even if we don’t actually believe any of the following crap that I just made up:
So, what do you think? Good enough? I hope I sounded fairly professional and critical. It’s so easy to slam things.
Now, to wrap up the negative piece, we need to say something bad about Apple in general. So we need to pick some low-hanging fruit. A cheap shot, if you will. How about sales numbers? It’s always easy to go negative on sales numbers. Much harder to go out on a limb and be bullish. So, just scramble together some more crap and we get the following:
Translation: A lot of people have bought iPods (duh!). Saying something is “at risk” is saying nothing (markets are always “at risk” of something), and besides, who really knows what the saturation point is? We are not talking copper sulfate in chemistry class. And as for outlook, we have no idea how these new products will do in the market (duh!).
So, whaddya think? Good enough to sound like we got a clue, when we actually don’t?
(This article originally appeared in the February 2008 issue of ATPM)
http://www.atpm.com/14.02/apple-talk.shtml
I hardly ever post stuff outside of AAPL on this blog, but… I feel this is highly relevant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I
On Jan 25, I wrote, “I am truly intrigued by the Apple zeitgeist today. Something is definitely afoot with all this negativity.”
So since Earnings, cyberspace has been increasingly “volatile” with messages from furious AAPL investors holding tanked stock. They (probably very rightly so) are blaming clueless analysts for being, well, clueless, and yet holding such influential sway.
Well, I hope these AAPL investors will enjoy reading what I wrote, shortly after Macworld, for the upcoming issue of ATPM. Stay tuned on that channel or subscribe by email.
In the meantime, the philosophical question of the day is, does the tail wag the dog? That is to say, did the stock tank first and then negative articles arose? I suspect that while many “pundits” really are clueless, not all seemingly-clueless pundits actually are, despite their written words.
In any event, arguing with the market is akin to shaking a fist at the clouds.
Looks like people might really have gotten mega-burned trying to game AAPL this month, expecting that either/both Macworld and Earnings will pop the stock. This year, that didn’t happen.
While it’s impossible to predict stock movements, it’s possible to ascertain probabilities (to a limited extent; just ask LTCM). So while I didn’t make a ton of cash betting AAPL will tank, I at least lucked out enough to not bet on a rally. The challenge now is to game my prognosis, which is increasingly bearish. Everything I am reading points to bearish media sentiment. True believer AAPL permabulls might hold onto the stock (for dear life?) until the storm blows over, but weaker hands could possibly let go as we enter a dreary year. If anything, the market could consider short term rally attempts as merely profit-taking/escape hatch opportunities. I hope not, but I don’t dare argue with stronger market players; this isn’t an RFC. It will be fun if the “amateur collective” builds sufficient steam to overcome Wall Street forces, but as mentioned above, I think batteries are dead in that department and in dire need of trickle recharging (probably until April, is my guess).
It can be frustrating that stocks do not necessarily react (at least in the short- and medium-terms) to business fundamentals. Movements might resemble more of a combination of emotion and back-end “business dynamics” (by the latter, I mean profit opportunities for market makers, hedge funds and other financial sector entities; this is their home court after all). It took me years and many losses to learn that lesson, which is why I have been more of a sentiment analysis trader in recent years (in my opinion, the only logical strategy, considering both fundamental analysis and technical analysis ultimately attempt to ascertain a single factor: upcoming sentiment).
Asia (Shanghai down more than 7%) and Europe look dismal today. We are closing off January in a couple more days. “As goes January, so goes the year.”
My updated thesis is that AAPL will become the proverbial Slope of Hope (primarily driven by permabulls) and the beaten-down Financials are set to climb the Wall of Worry, in light of oversold accumulation and increasing credit liquidity (which, ironically, is what got us to this whole carnage in the first place. Didn’t I already mention the illogic of it all?).
If AAPL rallies soon, wonderful. If not, no surprises.
I am truly intrigued by the Apple zeitgeist today. Something is definitely afoot with all this negativity.
So 140 turned out to be resistance in the previous session. Looks to me like we ran out of “fan fuel” for the stock, which is no surprise considering the last two weeks of wringing have dazed just about every AAPL bull, including this one. Depending on Friday, I just might have to scale back and position for flat-lining, or further drops if weak hands give up. The funds surely know AAPL is a great buy at this level but perhaps they have other near-term candidates to consider (such as the also-deeply-discounted Financials!).
And in other news, 140 divided by 100 is 1.4, which the number of iPhones that some people are wondering about. Apparently, available numbers don’t jive with Jobs’s statement about 4 million sold. I think this can be explained by the “global economy.” 1.4 million can easily be accounted for by what looks to me like numerous grey-market unlocked/hacked iPhones outside the official markets. In some major Asian cities for example, it is possible to see iPhones on subways, buses, sidewalks, malls, and offices. To count the number of unlocked iPhone owners that I personally know, who are not living in the official markets, I need pen and paper, not to mention iPhone owners who are just friends of friends.
Add in Europe, South America, Canada, and all the iPhone unlockers even in the official markets, and 1.4 million doesn’t seem that hard to explain. To underestimate Apple’s global impact and reach is myopic.
[Update: Analyst retraction]
Hot news: Fed just cut rates by 0.75!
The Pre-market is already reacting! Issues are ticking back up!
What an incredible day ahead!
I wonder if AAPL earnings might end up becoming just an academic item of interest, considering the sheer enormity of the global sentiment?On the other hand, could an incredible earnings upside surprise from the “little” Cupertino company be the catalyst that pulls the world back into a huge market bounce?
Although the US markets were closed on Monday, the impact from the Asian and European storms is unmistakable.
Look for a terrible open on Tuesday.
While nothing can be 100% certain, AAPL looks to be trading in a tempest. As I’ve said before, a picnic in a minefield is no picnic, so I am not sure if earnings will have any positive effect (assuming earnings is an upside surprise, which wouldn’t actually be too surprising even though Jobs already gave out the iPhone sales number at the keynote).
And as mentioned before, if AAPL’s earnings aren’t hot enough, it may well spur negative momentum even more.
[Update: The Asian markets are tumbling even further on Tuesday; those who weren’t too worried on Monday are freaking out on Tuesday and will likely cause those who aren’t worried on Tuesday to worry on Wednesday. Europe is going to wake up to another sea of red.]
I like! Great for trading!
[From AppleInsider photo gallery.]
More than a few friends have already been asking me about getting an MBA. They couldn’t believe I ordered one so quickly.
I gave them my take: That I reckon the MacBook Air is going to be the hottest computing item of 2008 and may well spur AAPL’s next earnings report.
For the upcoming one on Tuesday though, I could be wrong but I have a strange feeling about it not spiking AAPL this time around. I do hope this sense of paranoia is for nought but I am going to position - on a speculative short-term play - for a sudden discount, considering the general market malaise.
Everyone and his dog is going to be thinking AAPL is going to rocket after Tuesday. It well might, but nothing’s guaranteed. There could be folks lining up just to sell stock on any strength (or lack of sufficient strength) in light of overall bearish sentiment, or just grab whatever money they still can while the grabbing is still good, before we hit 2H08.The picture is apparent across the news: Manufacturing is being throttled back, companies are warning of slow moving traffic ahead, and certain types of consumers really are not going to have much free cash to buy a new iPod, much less a new Mac or iTunes-based HD movie rentals. So you gotta look at this against the turbo-powered revenue-multiplier line-extension strategy that many of us Mac-heads know is just going to bowl the whole world over in the coming years.
New thinking: I am going to look for more downward plays. Gaming MOT heading down worked out great for me over the past year. With the iPhone in town, the only player I had respect for was RIMM, but even that is changing now that I see the iPod Touch getting email over Wi-Fi.
I was told the MacBook Air is going to take the whole 3 weeks before Apple even starts shipping it! Darn.
So the guys who didn’t get burned enough on Tuesday this week are likely to game Tuesday next week, for AAPL earnings.
Even if earnings blow away mainstream estimates, what’s not certain is the macro tornado swirling all around.
Having a picnic in the middle of a minefield is not… a picnic.
I’m intrigued by the AAPL slump. Could just be a lot of weak hands from December betting on a Macworld pop that didn’t happen, with short-term capital that’s been margined away.That, combined with a new thesis of mine: Cash flowing out of Tech (bearish outlook) and into the Financials (oversold).
Boom!
I hope that gets me close to front of the line. I expect these things to have seriously long wait-times in a few more months as the early adopters take them around town and people see them in action.
2 to 3 weeks BTO. I took the 1.8 GHz CPU and 80 Gig hard disk. The SSD was very attractive but, quite a bit much for me (heck, I had to skimp somewhere! Market’s down fer chrissake!)
Well there you have it folks. Fantastic new superlightweight notebook; fantastic plummet. AAPL is around 163 now (whaddya I tell ya!) in after-market trading. Citi’s results didn’t help.
However, what a keynote! Woot!
Key items for the market include Citigroup’s earnings report early in the morning, and Apple’s announcement later in the day. The former, however, is likely to trump the latter, unless Jobs announces something truly earth-shattering. Somehow, I don’t think iPhone 2.0 or a subnotebook will suffice, even though I will get both. With bad news from Citi, and less-than-astounding news from Apple, we could be looking at the 160s or even lower for AAPL. On the upside, I’m thinking 190 max.
There’s another “Jobs” indicator that the market will do well to remember: AAPL has been trying to rally ahead of Steve Jobs’s RDF. Soon, we will know what “air” means — new wireless options for Mac? iPhone 2.0? A “light as air” subnotebook? More iPod options on airplanes? Apple as a wireless provider? Watch for the Sell-The-News and further subprime scares.
Just to start things off this month, I feel obliged to remind everyone that, yes, the Zune is still being sold in stores. Anyway, it’s only been a year or so, and we can’t expect it to die off so quickly. After all, Windows CE is still around, having transmogrified into various mutations including the most recent Windows Mobile (append year of beta testing) manifestation. The Zune is assuredly being kicked in the ass by the iPod but, as with other blattodea, is probably still going to be around for a while longer.
Now, I know, I know, it is entirely unfair to compare the Zune with the iPod. After all, Microsoft is not targeting the same demographics with the Zune. While the iPod was designed for, well, everyone, it appears the Zune was made for Microsoft staffers. OK, so not all of them use the Zune, but internal market-share numbers at Microsoft are very impressive. I can almost guarantee that the iPod holds only a niche position within that sliver of a slice of a segment of the world market, and that’s even including the iPods in the disposal bins around campus. So stop comparing apples and orangutans. These are totally separate market segments.
Now, another comparison people like to make is between Vista and Leopard. Doh! Hello, people? When will you learn? Comparing what is essentially Windows NT 2006 with what is essentially Mac OS X 10.5 is just ridiculous. As I mentioned before, the whole point of Leopard is to make computing faster, easier, more productive, and safer for humanity. Vista, on the other hand, is Microsoft helping to pass on that message to the market. It’s all done very subtly. There won’t be a “Go buy a Mac” sticker on the Vista box, but it’s pretty much saying that without being overtly direct. With its big footprint on the computing industry, Microsoft simply cannot be seen in “collusion” with Apple to expand OS X market share. Forget antitrust regulations—the Microsoft shareholders would riot. No, no, no. The company is already doing everything possible to ensure that Apple continues to be a resounding success:
And it’s not just Microsoft that’s doing this. The PC vendors are also in on the game, everyone working extremely hard to increase Macintosh market share quarter after quarter. I have my hunches (e.g., all these CEOs have huge AAPL positions or something) but, really, I don’t know why they are doing it. It just boggles my mind. But whatever the reason is, “good on ’em!”
Let me give you an example of what I’m talking about.
A few months ago, at the day job, I got assigned a ThinkPad X60 (now produced by Lenovo). I noticed an annoying Message Center alert among various other annoying Task Tray icons. After trying to ignore the little bugger for about three restarts (i.e., on the first day I used this brand new PC), I finally clicked on it.
Because I really have a lot of spare time and zero new messages in my proper e-mail inbox, I was happy to see two mysterious messages I had to read. (Not!)
One of them cheerily suggested that I “Learn how to achieve all-day computing.”
“Do more, save more, and spend more time unplugged with ThinkPad batteries,” it said.
I wanted to just delete it without reading, but being guilty of RTFM non-compliance in recent years, I decided to check out whatever hot tips Lenovo (or whoever had canned these messages) offered, especially since I wasn’t completely familiar with this particular PC’s shade of monochrome (to be fair, there was a fingerprint authentication doodad that I was itching to configure).
So I clicked on the friendly “Learn more…” hyperlink.
Bam! My Web browser launched (thankfully, Firefox was already installed) and loaded up…an E-commerce page on Lenovo’s server where I could purchase a “ThinkPad 56W Ultraportable AC Adapter” (part number 02K6880) or a “ThinkPad 72W Slim AC/DC Combo Adapter” (part number 73P4485).
Scrolling down the page, I noticed there were almost a dozen other screens that I could click on, ostensibly for more great power products I could buy to “Learn how to achieve all-day computing.”
I finally understood: Lenovo’s idea of “all-day computing” was to spend all day mucking around with this crap, and then spend “all night computing” just to catch up on real work. If that’s not putting your PC and Windows to work, I don’t know what is. More bang for the buck, right? Why turn off your computer and spend time with your family and enjoy life, when you can burn the midnight oil with Vista? Isn’t there some kind of metric that says the more you use something the less it actually costs for you? I guess that’s what the PC guys mean when they talk about Total Cost of Ownership. With the Mac, you just do whatever you have to do and turn it off. No opportunity to muck around and waste cycles. Evil!
The most intriguing thing about the “total PC user experience” fiasco is wondering exactly who masterminded it. I am sure the PC vendors (a.k.a. Original Equipment Manufacturers in industry-speak) learn somewhat from Microsoft’s example, but inquiring minds want to know if there’s a secret “black ops” team in Redmond that designs these horrendous hurdles for Windows users to jump. Or maybe there’s no team at all, and the OEMs just naturally and instinctively mimic the “industry leader.”
Contrast all this with the Apple experience and you can see why I say the entire industry is in collusion to ensure that only Apple will prevail. The high-level strategy is working, too. Reports are in that Mac OS X has taken over half of the Japanese OS market. But it’s not a completely fair pilot test because Microsoft skewed results by increasing already-outrageous Vista prices. Unless it intends to do this in other markets to ensure Apple’s success, the Redmond AppleCare master plan might be a bit slower to execute in, say, North America and Europe.
But mark my words. The entire PC industry, spearheaded by Microsoft, is very seriously “thinking different.” So different that I have no idea what it is doing. I just know that people are buying a whole lotta Macs and telling their friends to do the same.
So the next time you add an Apple product to your shopping cart, don’t forget to thank the Windows guys for pointing the way.
[At the time of writing this article, the new Zunes had apparently just shipped.]
(This article originally appeared in the December 2007 issue of ATPM)
This just in: LG is launching an updated Chocolate model. Hmmmm, yum yum. Now, help me out with this: Didn’t LG also launch a phone with Prada? What’s with all these fancy music phones? Surely nobody expects any of them to seriously compete with the Apple iPhone? LG and many of the other phone manufacturers (in fact, *all* of the other phone manufacturers) can thank their “lucky goldstars” that the iPhone is only competing on the super-high-end market… for the time being. So there’s still (a bit of) time for them to *try* and defuse the iPhone timebomb before it explodes in their shellshocked faces. Here’s a clue: Start redeploying anyone on your team who doesn’t understand what the big deal with the iPhone is.
Allegedly over a million iPhones have been sold just in the past few *days* in Great America. The European landing is going to happen soon. It won’t be June 6th as that’s already passed but you can be sure the iPhone is going to storm that continent.
For Asia Pacific, however, I reckon there’s still going to be a very large segment of consumers who will be very happy with non-iPhones. I am not talking about people who would buy LG Prada phones, or fork out more than $10,000 USD for a Vertu (I kid you not; 18 karat gold). I am talking about a lot of people in this region who could care less if the phone synced with their computer’s address book, looked up a street map, or played the latest episode of Desperate Housewives. These are akin to the many tens, nay, hundreds of thousands of people who are still buying non-Apple MP3 players, even in the face of the sleek, hip, and highly affordable clip-on iPod Shuffle.
I’m pretty confident that in about two and a half years, the mobile phone market is going to start resembling that of the music player (media player, really), with Apple on top and everyone below (count the Zune among the wannabes; hope you still remember the Zune).
But, breaking away from all the hype around Apple’s new communications product, the even bigger and far more important question is to what operating system are these 2010 iPhone users going to sync.
(This article originally appeared July 2007 on Network World Asia)
…to make a long story even longer, my Mac suddenly stopped working and one of the apps complained I had zero free disk space left. A quick look at the Get Info box for my internal HD confirmed this and got me puzzling how in heck this could have happened.
Microsoft has been getting the PC industry (that is, the personal computer industry) very excited about its new Vista thang. Redmond has been insanely successful at stirring up awareness (“I waited half a decade for this?!”) and it’s great to see yet another home run after the Zune (you forgot about Zune again?!).
What I don’t get though is how Microsoft benefits from more Apple users. But whatever it’s all about, those Redmond boys are just working like madmen to increase iPod and Macintosh market share. Crazy guys, ya just gotta love ’em. I suspect it might have something to do with that nasty anti-trust case that says Microsoft is not allowed to directly fund Apple marketing efforts, so this might be the next best way it can be done. Sure is some thinking outside the box. Now I finally understand why the Zune is an iPod killer because it’s an iPod killer app!
Anyway, because of all this, and despite me often making fun of Microsoft, I figured I should give them a break and support their efforts, and so went out and got a brand spankin’ new 17″ MacBook Pro.
OK, technically I didn’t go out at all. I clickity-clicked my Kensington Expert Mouse and ordered from the Apple Store. I must have toyed with the configuration a hundred times over the past two years, restraining myself and saving up cash, while Apple kept patiently blasting Wall Street estimates.
Prior to my new 17″, I had been chugging along with a 12″ 1 GHz iBook G4 and was aching to see how quickly iMovie HD would import my most recent HDV camcorder videos. But, first things first, I made a little QuickTime slideshow (iPhoto was fast!) and Pandoed it to my buddies. Two of them decided to get a new Mac also.
Next up: Parallels.
Being able to safely quarantine Windows in its little private hell within OS X, at native speeds, just rocks. Parallels is pretty much everything SoftWindows and Virtual PC wanted to be. I even wrote an article about it. In comparison with Boot Camp, if you’re not doing 3D games, Parallels lets you be more productive by running another system concurrently with OS X. The latest version supports seamless drag-and-drop between the Windows and OS X desktops and so, for most things, Parallels is probably the better approach. I’ve not yet tried VMWare’s offering but have already paid for and am happy with Parallels. Things can only get better from here, and I look forward to further innovations in virtualization for OS X.
Speaking of the letter “X,” this new laptop makes for my tenth Macintosh. I started with a Mac SE in college, used a MacPlus in one of my first jobs, then bought a Mac IIsi, a Mac 6100 AV, a PowerBook 180c, a PowerBook 520c, used a IIcx at another job, bought myself the original iMac when it came out (replacing the puck mouse within a week), a PowerBook G3 “Pismo,” a second-hand iBook G3, and then the iBook G4. That’s approximately ten Macs I’ve bought in two decades, or a Mac every couple of years. Crazy? Not as crazy as putting up with Windows nightmares. If time is money, my Macs have already paid for themselves in the time I’ve saved from agonizing over Windows. God knows I already suffer enough with the Windows machines I am often forced to use and, bless Clarus, that I came back in from the cold.
A Mac running OS X is a massively useful machine. You really can’t say the same for any other computer out there because none of them have been designed to be so seamlessly easy to use for such a wide variety of tasks. Just iLife alone can streamline management of our personal digital content in enormously simpler ways compared to even the best Google applications on Windows (e.g., Picasa). But it’s obviously not just the software. Because Apple is playing with a full deck of cards (the complete hardware/software solution) it can be intelligently mindful of the past and the future, so much so that even an aging G3 Mac is able to run enough OS X to deliver basic computing needs, while more recent Macs can look forward to the quantum leap that will soon be Leopard.
The iPod is also massively useful. Often pigeon-holed into the “MP3 player” category by clueless analysts the iPod plays more than just songs and videos. You can store data on it as a portable hard disk, listen to podcasts (as a source of a completely new channel of information), play games, view your calendar and contacts, and expand its functionality with a huge array of third-party add-on attachments. I actually hardly use my iPod for MP3s; I mostly use it for listening to and watching news podcasts on a daily basis and sharing family photos and movies at gatherings.
As much as I want Linux to succeed (in the spirit of true competition driving innovation and cross-pollination between Apple and open source efforts), it’s just not there yet. Desktop Linux is getting better every year for end-users, but if you just need something done, in a matter of minutes, not hours, it is very likely that booting up OS X will save the day so you can get on with living your life. Mucking around on the computer to troubleshoot something, or because of inefficient workflow caused by nascent design, can insidiously burn up our free time.
So am I more productive with my new Intel Mac? Well, where I previously had to put up with Windows PCs for certain business tasks, I am now able to completely do away with physical Windows machines (and tempting though it may be, I won’t likely go as far as throwing them out the window). This saves me a lot of time and physical space. Forget the KVM switch; I now just instantiate a Windows VM whenever I absolutely, positively have to put up with Windows for a certain task. In fact, it’s great to be using OS X while Windows boots in a hidden window. And, whenever that dog-slow gordian knot of programming decides to spin wheels for unfathomable reasons, I just leave it in the background to work out its frustrations while I keep on being productive with a real operating system. The other big bonus is that I can copy the entire VM file onto a backup drive or network volume and enjoy the peace of mind that I can reload my entire VM environment if I ever need to “undo” something, or if the VM ever crashed or got nuked by a virus. As for gaming, because Boot Camp is still the best optimized solution when it comes to raw graphics performance, my Mac can deliver the hit I need to satiate a gaming itch.
I could go on and on about how useful my new Mac is (such as watching DVDs in bed on the widescreen LCD; having enough screen estate to do a decent iMovie editing job; reading or editing PDF, text or Web pages in full page view or even 2-up mode) but all I really want to say is that I am truly looking forward to the iPhone being so massively useful that it will finally deliver the convergence vision the whole telecommunications industry has been yapping about for ten years.
What we need are digital tools that enhance our lives instead of detract from them. That, perhaps, is the core difference between Apple and the wannabes.
(This article originally appeared in the March 2007 issue of ATPM)